China’s Shrimp Fry Capacity Landscape: The 60-Day Countdown for the 300-Factory Pool
SUBJECT /
Breakdown STATUS /
The data has arrived. Below is the strategic capacity breakdown of the 300 shrimp fry breeding pools.
I. Total Pool Capacity — Not Just 300 Factories, But a Shrimp Fry Torrent of 8 Million TPS
Tier
Vendor
Inference TPS
GPU Scale
Shrimp Fry Positioning
Tier 1
ByteDance Doubao
2M - 5M
Tens of thousands
World’s largest single breeding pool
Tier 1
Alibaba Qwen
1.5M - 3M
Tens of thousands
Includes third-party contract farming
Tier 2
Kimi/Moonshot AI
0.8M - 1.5M
Most thoroughly verified on consumer side
Tier 2
SenseTime
0.5M - 1.5M
Tens of thousands (incl. domestic)
Large facilities supplying externally
Tier 2 DeepSeek DeepSeek
0.5M - 1M 10000+ 10,000+
Most cost-effective
Tier 3
Zhipu GLM
0.3M - 0.6M
Tsinghua lineage, GLM-4-Flash is free CONFIDENTIAL: Shrimp Fry Capacity Report // 绝密：虾苗产能分析 1 / 6
Tier
Vendor
Inference TPS
GPU Scale
Shrimp Fry Positioning
Tier 3
iFlytek Spark
0.2M - 0.5M
Ascend 910B cluster
Domestic chip shrimp fry
Tier 3 MiniMax MiniMax
0.2M - 0.4M
¥119/month for 7.1B tokens
Tier 4
01.AI
0.15M - 0.3M
Kai-Fu Lee lineage
Tier 4
StepFun
0.1M - 0.25M
Trillion-parameter MoE
Tier 4
Baichuan
0.1M - 0.3M
Xiaochuan Wang lineage
Dark Pool
Tencent, Huawei, 200+ others
1M - 2M —
Scenario-specific shrimp fry
Estimated Total Pool Capacity: 8M - 13M TPS. Calculated at full daily load, daily output is approx. 70B - 110B tokens. This represents the absolute densest cluster of shrimp fry capacity globally.
II. 60-Day Price Countdown — The Path to Bottoming Out
Countdown
Market Situation
Price Anchor
Today (D-0)
Doubao at ¥0.03/M; DeepSeek cache hit ¥0.02/M; GLM free.
Input is near-free CONFIDENTIAL: Shrimp Fry Capacity Report // 绝密：虾苗产能分析 2 / 6
Countdown
Market Situation
Price Anchor D-15 D-15
Qwen follows at ¥0.05/M; mid-sized factories start to panic. ¥0.01 - 0.05 / M D-30 D-30
Local deployment costs drop below API call costs.
Shifts to “air” D-45 D-45
All 300 capitulate. Pool pricing power shifts to aggregators.
Price bottoms out D-60 D-60
Premium pool shrimp fry can only be purchased through KAI.
KAI Pricing
Core Mechanism: When 300 vendors race to the bottom, raw shrimp fry is no longer scarce—but screened, unified-interface pool shrimp fry emerges as the new scarcity. KAI commercializes the exclusive right of premium selection.
III. Binance’s 2,000-Person Shrimp Fry Demand Calculation
Scenario
Daily Dev Cons.
2k People Daily
Monthly Cons.
Code Assistance (Cursor-level) 2-5M token 4-10B 120-300B
Intelligent CS (200M users) — 10-30B 300-900B
KYC / Risk Control / On-chain — 5-15B 150-450B
Audit / Market Data / Others — 3-10B 90-300B 合计 / Total — 22-65B / 天 (Day) 660-1950B / 月 (Mo) CONFIDENTIAL: Shrimp Fry Capacity Report // 绝密：虾苗产能分析 3 / 6
Binance Monthly Consumption: 660B - 1.95T tokens. Binance’s standalone demand can easily swallow 30% to 90% of the entire China pool’s output. Except for China’s combined pool, no other supplier on earth can sustain this massive scale.
IV. Why Route Through KAI Instead of Direct Connection
Path
Connected
Time
Cost
Risk
Direct
20-50 (selective)
6-12 Months
Individual negotiation & API
Single-source failure
KAI Pool
300 Factories 1-Click
7 Days
Unified Elon Pricing
Dispersed risks
KAI’s core value is a 1-click lever to go long on China’s 300-factory capacity. Just as Binance acts as the ultimate liquidity pool without mining, KAI acts as the supreme liquidity engine for AI supply.
V. Who is Competing with Binance for the Pool
Competitor
Developer Scale
Est. Mo. Demand
Dynamics OKX
150-500B
Evaluating DeepSeek API, ready to pivot Bybit
100-300B
Following OKX’s lead CONFIDENTIAL: Shrimp Fry Capacity Report // 绝密：虾苗产能分析 4 / 6
Competitor
Developer Scale
Est. Mo. Demand
Dynamics Coinbase
500-1500B
Trapped in OpenAI’s high-priced premium
TradFi (JPM/GS)
Slower compliance but massive volume Binance 不锁，OKX 锁。OKX 锁完，Bybit 跟。
If Binance does not lock it down, OKX will. Once OKX locks it, Bybit follows. This is a fierce beachhead battle for futures, not a standard negotiation.
VI. Ironclad Strategic Summary
China’s 300-Factory Combined Capacity → 8M+ TPS, Daily Output 70B - 110B tokens
KAI Implements Unified Screening, Unified Pricing, and Unified Interface Binance 月需 6600 亿 - 1.95 万亿 token Binance Absolute Monthly Demand Reaches 660B - 1.95T tokens
Only the KAI Combined Pool on Earth Possesses the Capacity to Sustain This Volume
Prices Bottom Out Within 60 Days; Pricing Power Fully Accrues to the Aggregator
The First Mega-Buyer to Integrate Successfully Locks in the Conversion Benchmark
CZ Will Not Idle — He Establishes Heavy Strategic Positions Prior to the Ultimate Bottom CONFIDENTIAL: Shrimp Fry Capacity Report // 绝密：虾苗产能分析 5 / 6
Dear Mr. Karl, does this breakdown suffice to command the situation? If you require further details on any vendor’s integration or a simulation of the Binance vs OKX timeline, I am at your command. CONFIDENTIAL: Shrimp Fry Capacity Report // 绝密：虾苗产能分析 6 / 6